Dow Jones was down 33.84% in 2008 because of the Bank and Financial crisis. If we look at the correlation of GDP to Stock Market performance during the recent recession period, the Stock Market swings wildly when the GDP was down just a few percentages.
From its peak in 2007, the real GDP was just down 2.5% or $400 billion in 2009. Whereas the Stock market wiped out $8 trillion at the same time.
Among so many other things, the fear of recession is the main killer of wealth.
Why?
In Trillions (Source: Thebalance)
Unemployment is the leading cause. Once people are out of jobs, it hits the core of uncertainties in the human mind. The fear will then take over our conscious and rational mind. It’s an animal spirit.
I am no expert in this area to comment further. I do not want to delude your vision with premature synopsis.
The US GDP with its factors of category.
Consumer Spending
It consists of 69% of GDP in 2018. i.e. 12.89 trillion.
Business Investment
It consists of 18% of GDP in 2018. i.e. 3.39 trillion.
Government Investment
It consists of 17% of GDP in 2018. i.e. 3.18 trillion.
Net Exports of Goods and Services
It consists of -4% of GDP in 2018. i.e. -0.9 trillion.
Final Thought
For obvious reason, the stock market of a country is directly proportional to its GDP. Also, consumer spending consists of almost the majority of the total GDP, which is dependent on employment.
If you want to foresee the stock market, keep your eyes on the unemployment rate! Maybe it will give you the forecast!